Title: US Job Market Weakness: Part-Time Surge and Crypto Impact in March 2025
Introduction: A Troubling Job Market Trend
The US job market showed signs of weakness in early 2025, with a sharp rise in part-time employment among those seeking full-time work. On March 12, 2025, The Kobeissi Letter reported on X that February 2025 saw 460,000 more people in this category, totaling 4.9 million — the highest since May 2021. Over 2.5 years, underemployment grew by 1.3 million, signaling labor market challenges. This shift impacts financial markets, especially cryptocurrencies, as investors react to economic uncertainty.
The Part-Time Employment Surge: Key Data
In February 2025, the number of Americans working part-time but wanting full-time jobs rose by 460,000 to 4.9 million, a 10.4% monthly increase (The Kobeissi Letter, 2025). Over 30 months, underemployment increased by 1.3 million (36%), per X posts from
@GlobalMktObserv
and
@PPGMacro
. Job growth was modest (100,000–200,000 jobs), and the labor force participation rate dipped to 62.4% from 62.6%. Job openings fell to 7.6 million, down 500,000, while healthcare added 52,000 jobs. This trend reflects employer caution, possibly due to tariff concerns, with the U-6 unemployment rate hitting 8%.
Impact on Cryptocurrency Markets
The job market news triggered crypto market reactions. On March 12, 2025, at 10:00 AM EST, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped 2.3% to $64,500, and Ethereum (ETH) fell 1.8% to $3,200 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Trading volumes surged, with BTC up 15% to $45 billion and ETH up 10% to $18 billion (CoinGecko, 2025). On Binance, BTC/USDT volume rose 18% to $22 billion, and ETH/USDT increased 12% to $10 billion (Binance, 2025). This suggests investors are adjusting portfolios amid economic uncertainty.
Technical Analysis: Bearish Crypto Trends
Technical indicators turned bearish. Bitcoin’s 14-day RSI fell to 45 (from 55), and Ethereum’s dropped to 42 (from 52), nearing oversold levels (TradingView, 2025). Bitcoin’s MACD crossed below the signal line at 11:00 AM EST (histogram -150), and Ethereum’s followed at 11:15 AM (histogram -80) (TradingView, 2025). Active addresses dropped 7% to 850,000 for BTC and 5% to 500,000 for ETH, while Ethereum gas fees rose 8% to 40 Gwei (Glassnode, 2025; Etherscan, 2025).
AI Tokens and Market Correlations
AI tokens felt the broader market pull. SingularityNET (AGIX) fell 1.5% to $0.80, with a 0.75 correlation to BTC (CoinMarketCap, 2025; CryptoQuant, 2025). AGIX volume rose 3% to $50 million, while Fetch.ai (FET) dropped 2% to $1.10, with a 5% volume increase to $75 million (CoinGecko, 2025). This reflects AI tokens’ sensitivity to macroeconomic trends, despite no specific AI news.
Implications for Investors
The part-time surge signals economic risks, potentially limiting Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. Crypto traders should watch support levels ($63,000 for BTC, $3,100 for ETH) and RSI/MACD reversals. AI tokens may offer long-term potential amid workforce shifts, but short-term moves hinge on economic data.
Conclusion
The February 2025 rise in part-time employment to 4.9 million highlights US job market weakness, impacting crypto prices and volumes on March 12, 2025. Bearish technicals and reduced on-chain activity suggest caution, while AI tokens mirror broader trends. Investors must stay informed on economic and tech developments.
